As the NFL postseason nears its finale, the spotlight often shifts to the team that secures the top seed in their division. Home-field advantage and the coveted bye week hold the promise of a strong playoff start, but as recent history reveals, nothing is a sure bet in the playoffs. But despite all of the drama that has unfolded in recent weeks, the 2023 season marks the second straight year in which a top seed has made it to the big game.
That team is of course the San Francisco 49ers. Throughout the latter half of the campaign, the NoCal outfit has been considered the favorite for the Lombardi, and as Super Bowl LVIII approaches, that sentiment hasn’t changed. Despite a difficult test against the reigning champion and dynasty-like Kansas City Chiefs looming large, the Bovada sports betting odds still make Brock Purdy and Co. a narrow -126 betting favorite, with Patrick Mahomes’ heavyweight Arrowhead unit priced at +116.
In the last three seasons alone, we’ve witnessed the best teams go down in surprising losses, casting doubt on the top seed’s traditional playoff expectations. Let’s delve into the numbers and narratives that challenge the tale of top-seed success.
Both Top Seeds Contest the Big One
In the latest NFL playoff run of 2022, the Kansas City Chiefs led the AFC as the top seed, with the Philadelphia Eagles commanding the NFC. Surprisingly, both teams advanced to the Super Bowl, marking the first time in half a decade that both conference’s best regular season performers made it to the Big Game. Fast forward to the current season, and the Chiefs and Eagles were once again in the playoff mix. But unfortunately for the Birds faithful, their postseason hopes went up in flames in the wildcard round with a resounding 32-9 drubbing at the hands of Baker Mayfield and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Andy Reid’s men however have reached the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years, and their hopes of claiming yet another championship remain intact, just as they did last season. Last term, they advanced to their divisional round by defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars and then claimed victory over a new adversary, the Cincinnati Bengals, in a nail-biting contest that showcased the exceptional skills of quarterback Joe Burrow front and centre once again.
On the other side of the spectrum, the Lincoln Financial Field outfit ensured that the Dallas Cowboys’ playoff curse continued before capitalizing on the 49ers’ quarterback injury troubles to secure a spot in the Super Bowl. In their face-off at State Farm Stadium in Arizona, Mahomes demonstrated his prowess by leading his side back from a ten-point deficit to clinch the prestigious Lombardi.
49ers and Titans Both Lose First Postseason Contest
In the AFC the Tennessee Titans entered as the dominant top seed while in the NFC, it was the formidable San Francisco 49ers. However, both endured a heartbreaking playoff exit, each succumbing in their very first game. The Titans had been steamrolling through the regular season with impressive victories over the conference’s best – namely both the Chiefs and Josh Allen’s Bills – but they were stunned by the Cinderella story of the Cincinnati Bengals. Fueled by the unparalleled skill of the aforementioned quarterback supreme Burrow, the Bengals emerged as the forces to be reckoned with, dashing the Super Bowl aspirations of the AFC frontrunners.
Despite a patchy season in 2020, an iconic figure from the world of college football brought a new dawn to the underdog Paycor Stadium team. While their playoff bid in his maiden campaign year fell short, the following campaign witnessed them conquering the Las Vegas Raiders to clinch a historic playoff victory, breaking a three-decade dry spell. The Cinderella run didn’t stop there, as they went on to outplay the Titans at the Nissan Stadium, with Evan McPherson’s nerve-wracking field goal securing a last-minute win.
The seemingly unstoppable Niners also tasted defeat, faltering against their fierce local rival Los Angeles Rams, who ultimately triumphed at Super Bowl LVI on home turf at SoFi Stadium.
Tom Brady Downs Both Top Seeds
In 2020, the Chiefs were the reigning champions after defeating the San Francisco 49ers in the previous campaign, and they duly cemented their legacy as the team to beat by securing top-seed status in the AFC. Over in the NFC, Aaron Rodgers had another marquee year to springboard his Green Bay Packers to the top of his conference throughout the regular season. The Chiefs lived up to their billing by defeating the Cleveland Browns and the Buffalo Bills, both on their home turf at Arrowhead. However, their Super Bowl dreams were dashed as Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave them a resounding defeat, winning by a margin of 31-9 at the Bucs’ Raymond James Stadium.
The Buccaneers secured another unforgettable victory against the Packers on enemy territory in the previous round, defying the odds and silencing their critics by winning their third straight game on the road. A-Rod had been delivering an exceptional season, yet even his heroics couldn’t withstand the relentless offensive onslaught led by Brady, who showcased his legendary prowess with a 31-26 triumph, cementing his reputation as the ultimate clutch player.
